Big Storm Moving In Thursday Night

Ok here we go once again. But this system has quite a punch to it and has gave us a huge forecasting challenge. It seem like every day we would have a new forecast track with new ideas on how the storm was going to affect us. Ok now just to give everyone a heads up this forecast still could change and even one of my forecast products said we could have all rain. Which i really don't think is going to happen. Anyways the totals came out to be as much as 15 inches and as low as 3-4" inches with ice. GREAT....

Ok Now here is Meteorologist Jim Lehockys point of view on this really complex system.

We are still expecting a high-impact winter storm to hit the state Thursday evening through Friday morning.

*Winter Storm Watch* has been posted for Thursday afternoon-Friday A.M. for much of Northern Michigan. Please check out the Winter Weather Alert Graphic for more details on the counties included*

*Winter Weather Advisory* for Luce, Chippewa and Mackinac Counties through 7p.m. today for a few inches of snow*

This storm will have a lot of energy with it giving us the potential to see heavy snow, some icy mix, and windy conditions.

This is what I am going with:

A heavy swath of snow should fall in an area from Pentwater to Harrison to Harrisville north to the Eastern U.P. So basically, much of the viewing area has the chance to see heavy snow. Not only do we have the snow to worry about, we have the chance to see some icy mix just south of the snow area. That puts the icy mix south of that Pentwater-Harrison-Harrisville line to the Grand Rapids-Flint area. Remember, any fluctuation of the storm track will move the precip areas accordingly.

Yesterday morning, most of the computer models were tracking the storm farther south. Even a slight change of course will alter the forecast.Snow amounts could be hefty. As a matter of fact, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (National Weather Service) has put Northern Michigan and the U.P. in the path of the heaviest snow, also. In excess of 8"-12" could fall. Traveling Thursday evening-Friday early morning will be hazardous if this storm develops and takes the expected path. Again, not only do we have the snow to contend with, we also have the chance for an icy mix in parts of central and southern Michigan.Until this all comes together, for today we are looking at occasional snow across the U.P. by midday and into the p.m. hours. 1"-3" will be possible here.

South of the Straits, we are looking at a patchy rain/snow/sleet mix.Highs today will be in the lower 30's north and middle to upper 30's south.Tonight, skies will become mostly cloudy with a small chance for freezing drizzle or mis. Lows will be in the 20's.The clouds will thicken up Thursday with the snow moving in late p.m. into the evening hours.We get new data every few hours and we will update the expected storm track right here and also on 9&10 News.-

Meteorologist Jim Lehocky,

So there it is right now. I will probally have a video on this tomorrow..Keep update on the website and the blog. Thanks

Dylan Rodenbaugh
Junior Meteorologist
www.dylansweather.com